Indian people’s mood has moved so much against the MMS-Govt that, if a general election is held now, they may dump the current UPA dispensation.!!!

India’s mood is swinging against Manmohan Singh’s govt: opinion poll
January 27, 2012, 9:29 pm



BY S VENKAT NARAYAN Our Special Correspondent



NEW DELHI, January 27: Thanks to the large number of corruption scandals that rocked India’s Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government last year, the popular mood in the country is swinging against Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s dispensation, an opinion poll has warned.



The people’s mood has moved so much against the government that, if a general election is held now, they may dump the current UPA dispensation.



This is the finding of the India Today-ORG Mood of the Nation Poll published in the weekly newsmagazine’s current issue. The poll was conducted between December 28, 2011 and January 12, 2012.



The UPA was voted back to power for a second consecutive five-year term in May 2009, and the next election is due only in April-May 2014. This means the UPA is left barely with 27 months to get its act together before facing a parliamentary election.



According to the poll, Gujarat Chief Minister and senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Narendra Modi has emerged as the country’s most favoured prime ministerial candidate by collecting 24% of the vote, leaving far behind the likes of Congress PartyRahul Gandhi (12%), Manmohan Singh (10%), and Sonia Gandhi (10%), veteran BJP leader and long-time aspirant for the coveted post Lal Kishenchand Advani, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (5%), and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Ms Mayawati.



The opinion poll says that, while the UPA may lose the election, neither the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) nor the disparate left-leaning non-UPA and non-NDA parties will be able to garner a simple majority to form the next government here at the centre.



A party or an alliance will need the backing of 272 members in the Lok Sabha to be able to form the government at the centre.



Since the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009, the popular mood amongst the voters has swung 7.7% away from the present UPA government. As a result, the UPA constituents may end up winning 168 to 178 seats in the 543-member lower house of parliament by polling 28% of the popular vote. In 2009, the alliance had won 259 seats by garnering 35.7% of the votes.



While the Congress won 206 seats in the last election, its tally may slump to a paltry 110 seats now, the lowest tally in the country’s parliamentary history since the first general election in 1952.



The NDA too may poll 28% of the vote, but may end up with 180 to 190 seats. The popular mood has swung in its favour by 2.3%. The BJP may improve its tally to 140 seats this time from 116 seats in 2009.



On the other hand, the yet-to-be-formed Third Front, as the media tends to brand the group of parties that are not a part of either the UPA or the NDA, may collect 44% of the vote, but procure only between 180 and 190 seats. In 2009, these parties polled 38.6% of the vote and won 125 seats.



The UPA comprises the Congress Party and regional outfits such as the Trinamool Congress (TMC), National Congress Party (NCP), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), JKNC, Kerala Congress, MUL, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Jharkhand Vikas Parishad, Bodoland People’s front, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal.



The NDA consists of the BJP, Janata Dal-U, Shiv Sena, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Shiromani Akali Dal, Haryana Janhit Congress, Republican Party of India (Athawale).



The third group of parties comprises Samajwadi Party, Ms Mayawati’s BSP, CPM, CPI, RSP, Forward Bloc, People’s Democratic Party, BJS, TDP, YSR Congress, TRS, JD-S and Asom Gana Parishad.



Curiously enough, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayaram Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK does not figure in any of the three groups.



The poll is based on a survey across 19 states, with a sample size of 12,648 eligible voters drawn from 98 randomly selected parliamentary constituencies. The states covered in the survey account for 514 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies.

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